The smaller but quicker #24 ranked Navy Midshipmen come into this game 5-0 against the #12 ranked 6-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Navy is unbeaten, but has a weaker schedule and has not faced a ranked opponent this year. The Irish’s only loss came against Northern Illinois, with a score of 16-14. Unlike Navy, Notre Dame has beaten ranked teams, #20 Texas A&M and #15 Louisville.
Coming into this game against the Navy Midshipmen Midshipmen, Notre Dame’s best possible playoff seed is the fifth spot. They have a 63 percent chance to make playoffs after beating Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. This game will truly be the battle of David vs Goliath. This time, the oddsmakers have Goliath favored by 12.5 points.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense Relies on Short Middle Passes and Outside Runs
This year, Notre Dame’s offense primarily runs out of a pro formation utilizing a single back called an “Ace Back”. Their wide receivers generally line up in “twins”, two wide receivers to the strong side of the formation, but sometimes are in “trips”, three receivers to the strong side of the formation.
Pro Formation: Credit: Conceptdraw.com
Trips Left Formation: Credit: footballadvantage.com
Duke transfer, Riley Leonard tends to throw many short passes, particularly to the left-side flat. Notre Dame runs a lot of screens effectively, but again, mostly to the left side. Leonard is best at the short pass. The Irish’s plays are designed to tune their running backs’ effectively on short middle passes and swing passes. The Irish incorporate their wide receivers primarily on short slant passes over the middle. Leonard is susceptible to making mistakes, particularly when he tries to throw long or when he tries to shuttle pass off his runs.
Despite his shortcomings, his passing statistics are impressive to date having completed 118 of 177 attempts for 1,182 yards But Leonard’s long passes are not accurate. He throws “a rope”, (low straight fastball). They either tend to sail over his receiver’s head or dive short into the ground forcing the receiver to needlessly have to come back to the ball.
As for the run, Riley Leonard is Notre Dame’s second-leading rusher (75 carries for 456 yards). Statistics and film show that for every two carries he gives his running backs, he allows himself a carry, either by design or scrambling necessity. To that end, Leonard has good speed and mobility. On the goal line, Riley Leonard tends to run on first and second downs.
Notre Dame’s primary running backs are #4, Jeremiyah Love (77 carries for 462 yards) and #24, Jadarian Price (49 carries for 329 yards). Love is a good back with great speed in the open as was evident against Georgia Tech, particularly on the reverse and Run after catch. Price is a nimble and shifty power back able to get large chunks of yardage outside the tackles. Notre Dame excels at running outside.
For the Most Part, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish’s Defense Excels at the 4-3 Defense
On defense, Notre Dame plays various variations of a 4-3 upfront. In the secondary, Notre Dame plays primarily “man to man” (man) coverage. Leonard Moore, #15, cornerback excels in “man coverage”. As does #0, Xavier Watts, and #4, Jaiden Ausberry. As strong as Notre Dame’s pass defense is on the corners, their weakness is in the middle, particularly the mid to deep pass.
Notre Dame is vulnerable to the run, particularly to the right outside. This was demonstrated last week when Georgia Tech rushed to their left outside, Notre Dame’s right cover position. To the contrary, the Irish’s left side of the defense appears to be stout in all facets, both the run and the pass.
First Glance at the Navy Midshipmen Reveals a Brand of Old-Time Football
Navy’s offense runs primarily out of a “Modified” or ‘Hybrid” Wing T” formation. The “Wing T” has been used in college football from its inception. The original “Wing T”, used by Navy for decades, is a “run first” oriented formation.
The “Hybrid Wing T”, that Navy uses this year, incorporates both the “Triple Option”, which allows the quarterback to keep the football or handoff/pitch it to any of his two backs, designated running back and fullback.. The “Triple Option” is a throwback formation that has allowed Navy’s smaller, quicker backs to compete against schools with larger, slower players. It’s sometimes referred to in football parlance as the “great equalizer”.
All in all, the Hybrid Wing-T formation relies on deception and misdirection causing the opponent’s defenses to react to a play instead of attacking a play.
The Navy Midshipmen also use the “Shotgun” formation. This formation sets the quarterback five yards back instead of being directly under the center, closer to the line of scrimmage, when he gets the ball. In simple terms, this formation allows a quarterback to see the opponent’s defensive formations better and improves both the lineman’s ability to form the passing pocket and the quarterback’s scrambling capability.
Navy Midshipmen’s quarterback, #11, Blake Horvath is an expert and runs the Hybrid Wing-T. He makes good decisions when running the ball. Horvath functions well out of the shotgun. He has a good touch on his passes and demonstrates a great understanding of pass coverages. He leads the Midshipman rushing game with 79 carries for 621 yards. He has completed 46 of his 72 passing attempts for 888 passing yards.
Navy’s primary running back, (designated as a “fullback”), #46, Alex Tecza. is plain and simply a “phenom” at the position. To date, the junior, second-year fullback has 175 carries for 1064 rushing yards in his short Navy career. This year he has 49 carries for 306 yards. Primarily due to his fleet of foot, the Midshipman is 19 for 19 in scoring, once in the “Red Zone”, (“Red Zone is from the opponent’s 20-yard line to the goal line)
Like Notre Dame, Navy’s defense plays a 4-3 also. Their defensive line and linebackers are smaller than most schools but make up for their side with speed and quickness. Midshipmen, linebacker, #44, Colin Ramos, particularly excels in the pass rush and it will be interesting to see how he fairs against Notre Dame’s bigger but slower linemen.
For Navy to beat Notre Dame:
For Navy to beat Notre Dame’s defense, they need to throw the ball, mid to deep passes. They need to run off tackle and outside, particularly to the Notre Dame secondary’s right side. Other than keeping Notre Dame’s defense honest, they should avoid throwing to Notre Dame’s left flat (Navy’s right flat).
For Navy to stifle Notre Dame’s offense they need to put a “Spy” on Riley Leonard early. Doing so successfully would effectively shut down 50% of Notre Dame’s Running Game. They need to invoke tight coverage on middle-of-the-field passes. The secondary needs to “stay at home” as Notre Dame’s offense excels at running Jeremiyah Love to the outside flats. Doing so will neutralize Notre Dame’s trick running plays, such as its “double reverse”.
Much will rest on the shoulders of Blake Horvath’s performance. Navy’s Coach, Brian Newberry, said this of Horvath:
“He’s been outstanding. You know obviously he’s a great player for us and a tremendous part of our success this year…more impotantly he’s just a great young man…he’s everything that the Naval Academy values and embodies and a great leader for us and been a great player…(Horvath) He’s super smart kid, great teamate, ispires the guys around him…there’s really not enough good things to say about Blake.”
A video review of three of Notre Dame’s games, shows they start out slow on offense and gradually pick up as the game progresses due primarily to Riley Leonards unpredictability when it comes to running the ball. Likewise Notre Dame’s defense, particularly their man coverage, drastically improves in the second half. Navy needs to catch them early on offense with some focus on a mix of left outside runs and mid-to-deep passes
If Navy Midshipmen’s “hybrid wing-T” formation, with its multiple misdirections and confusing deceptions, can catch Notre Dame’s defense off guard early, and Navy’s defense invokes tight, middle field coverage, incorporating a “spy” to contain Notre Dame’s quarterback, Riley Leonard….David might just beat Goliath…once again.