For the four AFC East clubs, the drumbeat towards beginning the 2024 NFL season kicked off in earnest this week with the commencement of training camps. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots are all gunning to claim the AFC East crown in 2024, but three will fall short.
An offseason of changes swept through all four clubs, including Buffalo trading away Stefon Diggs amidst an offseason of sweeping changes by Lake Erie, and the Patriots drafting Drake Maye. Miami’s locking down of their star QB Tua Tagovailoa, however, leaves Miami as the likely frontrunner in the division once again. But the NFL is inherently unpredictable, and predicting the ultimate results of 17 games can and often is a fruitless effort.
Nonetheless, we will start predicting the entire 2024 season and its outcome over the next eight days beginning with the four AFC East clubs, predictions that will be revisited the day after Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.
2024 AFC East Champions: Miami Dolphins
Predicted Record: 12-5
Mike McDaniel’s unit were high-flyers on offense in 2023, scoring nearly 30 points per game amidst their 70-20 beatdown of Denver in Week 3. However, a late-season collapse saw the Dolphins lose both of their final contests of the season to lose control of the AFC East. And in one of the NFL’s coldest-ever games, the Dolphins sputtered to lose to eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City on Wild Card Weekend.
The Dolphins secured Jaylen Waddle for another four seasons this offseason but lost multiple faces on defense, including DC Vic Fangio, who reversed course back to Philadelphia after one season in Miami to assume the same position in Nick Sirianni’s staff. Still, with Tagovailoa now also secured, Miami will remain as high-flying as they were in 2023, with Tyreek Hill showing his approval over the deal not long after it was announced.
Expect Miami to right their wrongs of 2023 by winning the AFC East, and in doing so bring January football to South Beach for the first time since 2008.
New York Jets
Predicted Record: 10-7
Of the four AFC East clubs, the Jets had the brightest outlook going in 2023. Then the unthinkable happened four snaps in. Ultimately, the Jets slumped and went on to finish 7-10 for the second consecutive season. Rodgers will turn 41 in 2024, and it is anyone’s guess as to how the 20-year veteran will perform for the team that is seeking to end the longest playoff drought in pro sports.
The Jets made splashes on both sides of the ball this offseason, including moves to protect Rodgers and ones that will afford him more help on offense, and further moves on defense.
To have any shot at winning the AFC East in 2024, Gang Green must sweep Miami during their December contests, while also taking down a weakened Bills squad. Their 2024 campaign will also feature contests against the defending NFC Champion 49ers and multiple other 2023 playoff squads. They may not be able to take the division, but the Jets will find a way to get to 10 wins and secure a Wild Card.
Buffalo Bills
Predicted Record: 9-8
Josh Allen and the Bills have a mountain to climb in 2024. Vegas has the Bills still primed to win the division, but their substantial losses on both sides of the ball make this a tall task for Sean McDermott’s unit, who sank to 6-6 last season before reeling off five consecutive wins to claim the AFC East once more.
The Bills have the misfortune of having to play the NFL’s first Thursday Night game of the season in Week 2, and will also have a rematch of last season’s Divisional Round contest against the Chiefs awaiting them in Week 11. The 49ers will also come to town to open the month of December but close their campaign with two contests in three weekends against the Patriots.
All told, this Bills team will narrowly miss the postseason.
New England Patriots
Predicted Record: 6-11
Where is Tom Brady when you need him? The Patriots sunk to their worst record since the early 1990s in 2023, cobbling together only four victories which led to the end of the line for Bill Belichik. New coach Jerod Mayo has to now assume control of the Patriots, with top selection Drake Maye joining Jacoby Brissett (in another stop to Foxboro), Bailey Zappe, and Joe Milton in New England’s QB room.
To cut it short, don’t expect too much from a Patriots team in year one of both a new Head Coach and a rookie Quarterback. Granted, didn’t we once say this about another young QB and a new Head Coach in New England?
In any regard, the Patriots will take a small step forward in 2024.
