With the 2023 NFL season about to kick off, it is a great time to look at the win totals for each team and decide where the best value is. Today, we are going to look at three of the lines that we can take full advantage of as the sportsbooks are underestimating the teams.
All of the totals listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook, so the number could be different depending on which sportsbook you use.
With that out of the way, let’s discuss three teams that will win more than Vegas expects them to!
2023 NFL Season Team #1: Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins
The Washington Commanders went a perfect 3-0 in the preseason, showcasing their depth. They also added offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to help make their offense go even better than last season. While they have questions with Sam Howell at quarterback, they have Riverboat Ron Rivera coaching the team, incredible skill position players, and an electric defensive front.
Seven wins seem simple when they have teams like Arizona, Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams, and Chicago as potential wins. If they win those four games and split the NFC East games, that is seven wins right there. That does not include upsets they can have with teams like New England and the rest of the AFC East.
2023 NFL Season Team #2: New York Jets Over 9.5 Wins
Expecting the New York Jets to improve by three more games than they won last season feels too easy. They added quarterback Aaron Rodgers and running back Dalvin Cook to their roster during the offseason and should be a force in the AFC. New York has a brutal first six games before their bye week as they face Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philadelphia. If they can go 3-3 in those games, they should cruise to the over.
They have tough games but should be able to beat the Giants, Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Commanders, and Browns, and that is six wins. They go 3-3 in the division and win one of the four non-divisional games; in the first six weeks, they hit 10 wins in the 2023 NFL Season.
2023 NFL Season Team #3: Houston Texans Over 6.5 Wins
This is going to be a little tougher, but the Houston Texans improved with two of the top three picks in the NFL draft in April, with quarterback CJ Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. This is also coach DeMeco Ryans’ first season leading the charge and the Texans do not own their 2024 first-round pick so they have no reason to tank.
6.5 wins in the 2023 NFL season seems tough, but in the AFC South with Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, they should get 2-3 wins easily. This defense is going to surprise people with a strong secondary led by Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., so expect the Texans to take a Detroit-esque jump in 2023.
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