The 2023 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. Obviously, fanbases are excited about the new, young talents their team could be adding April 28-30. Additionally, there’s betting market surround the NFL Draft is getting bigger with each year, and 2023 is no exception. There are plenty of draft bets to look at and pull the trigger on.
UNDER 3.5 Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the First Round (+150 DK)
In recent years, NFL teams have been reluctant to use first round picks on Big 12 players. There hasn’t been a Big 12 player drafted in the first round in the previous two NFL Drafts. Also, there’s only been one instance where the Big 12 has had at least four players drafted in the first round in the past ten drafts (2020).
This year, the Big 12 certainly has first round talent. Edge rusher Tyree Wilson, receiver Quentin Johnston, and running back Bijan Robinson instantly come to mind. Plus, edge rushers Will McDonald IV and Felix Anudike-Uzomah and tackle Anton Harrison are also getting first round publicity. However, Wilson is the only one consistently getting a Top 10 projection (see CBS Sports for example). Everyone else seems to be anywhere from mid-first round to not even being listed.
Given the recent historical context, taking the under at plus money seems like a good value bet.
Anthony Richardson Under 4.5 Draft Position (-135 DK)
Quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the most polarizing prospects in the NFL Draft. Despite his lackluster college statistics, he has incredible traits and physical characteristics. He was the talk of the 2023 NFL Draft Combine, and multiple teams have set up or are setting up meetings with him. This includes the QB-needy Indianapolis Colts, who hold the 4th pick in the draft.
The Colts have taken an extensive look at Richardson since March. As a result, it’s hard to see a scenario where Richardson falls past them at the fourth draft slot. Plus, the Colts’ interest could cause other teams to trade with Arizona Cardinals for the 3rd pick overall if they really want Richardson. The Las Vegas Raiders, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Tennessee Titans have scheduled workouts with him.
There’s just too much chatter around Richardson’s Top 4 status to not take it seriously. The odds on this bet are not favorable on DraftKings. However, the price is still good enough to make the bet. Though, take better odds if you can find them.
Zay Flowers OVER 24.5 Draft Position (+200 DK)
Quentin Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba highlight the class with Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, and Jordan Addison also getting first round looks. Depending on the analyst, Flowers is ranked from the second to the fifth best receiver in the class. He certainly knows how to find the endzone as his 31 receiving touchdowns at Boston College are nothing to scoff at.
Unfortunately, he is undersized. Some teams will immediately rule him out as a first round pick because of his 5’9″, 182-pound frame. He only needs one team within the first 24 picks needs to take him for the bet not to hit. A team like the Baltimore Ravens, who seem to like him, could pull the trigger. However, Flowers need to boast overwhelming star potential for any team to take him early. Frankly, no one in the WR class really has that.
This year’s wide receiver class is lacking in star potential compared to the previous two draft classes. As a result, this could prompt many teams to look away from the receiver position early in the draft. If that happens, it’s pretty easy to make a case for Flowers to fall past the 24th slot.
Other Bets to Watch As NFL Draft Approaches
- UNDER 4.5 QBs Taken in the First Round (-160)
- OVER 2.5 TEs Taken in the First Round (+200)
- Will Anderson Drafted 5th Overall (+175)