Win Total: O/U 9.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -225/No +175
Win NFC West: +160
Super Bowl: +1600
All odds and lines are from Draftkings
The San Francisco 49ers were an interesting team to say the least. Starting off the 1st half of the season 3-5 the 49ers didn’t look poised to make a deep playoff run. Boy would I have been wrong. After week nine they finished the season on a 7-2 run to finish 10-7 securing a wildcard spot. Deebo Samuel led the charge having a breakout year on the offensive side. The QB situation was the big storyline coming into the season between Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance but Jimmy G held onto the starting Job whenever healthy. Injuries piled up against them but even after that the niners found their selves in the NFC championship losing by a field goal to the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams.
Key Departures: Laken Tomlinson, D.J. Jones, Raheem Mostert
Jets, OL Laken Tomlinson agree to three-year, $40M contract. (via @TomPelissero, @RapSheet, @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/bYICXwpreT
— NFL (@NFL) March 14, 2022
San Fran’s offseason hasn’t been crazy eventful. Tomlinson is going to be the biggest loss sign as he is PFF’s 13th Graded offensive guard. The 49ers offense has been built from the inside out establishing the run game. While the run game will still be their bread and butter, losing Tomlinson hurts. D.J. Jones left to sign with Denver but this one won’t sting as much. Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw should be able to clog up the middle for the niners. Lastly, Raheem Mostert left for cheap joining the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers seem to make it work with any running back and Elijah Mitchell really proved his worth last year. Mostert can be very explosive but he wasn’t able to stay on the field these past couple years. This loss shouldn’t affect the 49ers too much going forward.
Key Additions/Resigning’s: Charvarius Ward, George Odum, Drake Jackson (Rookie)
Charvarius Ward highlights this group of players as he inked a 3 year/40.5 million dollar deal with The 49ers. Ward should be able to come in and be an immediate factor. Despite not having huge names, The 49ers secondary was very good. They were the 7th best against opponent passing yards allowing only 213 yards per game. Ward comes in and should immediately improve the CB position. George Odum joined the bay too and will start alongside Jimme Ward at safety. Odum had a solid year with Indy in 2021 having a season high in tackles. San Francisco adds to their already sound secondary with the Odum signing. The 49ers first selection of the 2022 NFL draft was Drake Jackson out of USC with the 61st overall pick. Jackson should provide speed off the edge as he clocked in with a 4.50 40 time. He also has the versatility to play linebacker too which will be interesting to see how they scheme him into the defense.
The 49ers come into 2022 with the 13th easiest strength of schedule according to sharpfootballanylsis.com. Drawing the AFC West was probably the toughest draw as their cross conference play but outside of that their schedule isn’t crazy difficult. While the NFC West is difficult by itself, the 49ers should be right up there in competition with the Rams and Cardinals for the division title.
My Picks and Analysis: 49ers O9.5 wins
The 49ers are fully committed to Trey Lance going into this season. While Jimmy G has been decent, he hasn’t lived up to expectations and the 49ers are ready to move on. Lance brings a whole other dimension to this 49ers offense with his mobility. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him used like Lamar Jackson lite as he has elite speed at the QB position. Kyle Shanahan has proven to be an elite offensive minded head coach in the NFL and I think Lance will flourish in his system. The biggest question for this team going into the year is Deebo Samuel. Samuel Requested a trade earlier this offseason and is standing firm on that up to this date. Losing Samuel would hurt tremendously as he was the offense last year. He accounted for 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns last year. If the 49ers are able to retain Deebo, I think they go over 9.5 wins. Their defense is elite and Lance brings a ton of upside into the 49er offense. Deebo is the X-factor though and the 49ers can’t afford to lose him in my opinion.
Prop to bet: Trey Lance O500.5 Rushing Yards
I personally think this prop SMASHES. Lance ran for more than double than this in college. This isn’t college anymore though, very good point. Let’s take a look at the small sample size Lance gave us last year. In the three games lance got playing time (2 being starts) he ran for totals of 89, 41, and 31 yards. That’s 161 rushing yards and one of the games he came in mid game. Just for argument purposes, we’ll say he played 3 full games. He was rushing for 53.6 yards per game. Small sample size for sure. No doubt about it. If he were to average what he did though last year per game he’d rush for 901 yards. Even if you think he cannot sustain that average, this is clearly part of Lance’s game. Like I mentioned above, I can see them drawing up designed runs for him and using him as another threat in the ground game. In a 17 game season I think Lance easily eclipses this number. He’s shown it in college and he’s shown it in his limited NFL experience that he can be mobile. Trey Lance over 500.5 rushing yards book it.
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