ESPN’s College Football FPI rankings are created by simulating the college football season 20,000 times and taking an average of the results. Of course, these are just projections, and they never end up being 100% correct, but they are a pretty good reference point, especially in the middle of June.
Last year, the FPI correctly projected 12 of the final 15 top-ranked teams, although not in the right order. Of course, there are always a few surprises, such as USC ultimately fading late in the season (preseason ranked 7th) and TCU continuing to fall off the cliff that Georgia pushed them down the year before (started ranked 17th), but again, for a preseason measuring stick, it is pretty good.
There are a few surprises in this year’s ESPN FPI rankings. Here are just a few:
Team Ranked MUCH LOWER Than Expected: Utah (27th)
![5 College Football ESPN FPI Projections That Will Shock Every Fan 1 big 12 brant kuithe utah](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/USATSI_18984096_168400545_lowres-1024x729.webp)
Utah is one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this upcoming season, yet they are ranked as the fifth team in the Big 12 behind Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. Yes, there will likely be a lot of parody in the Big 12 this upcoming season, but for a team that many in the media see as a Top 15 team and a CFP dark horse, seeing Utah ranked outside of the Top 25 completely seems low.
Team Ranked MUCH HIGHER Than Expected: Oklahoma (8th)
![5 College Football ESPN FPI Projections That Will Shock Every Fan 2 COLLEGE FOOTBALL](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/D.-Burks.webp)
Don’t get me wrong, Oklahoma should be pretty good this year, but eighth seems high. Oklahoma has gone 16-8 the last two years, including 10-8 in the Big 12. The Big 12 isn’t an easy conference, but it isn’t the SEC.
For Oklahoma to finish 8th in the final rankings, they’d likely have to go 3-2 against Alabama, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri while also going undefeated in their other games. That seems like a tall ask in their first season in the SEC under new quarterback Jackson Arnold.
Biggest Surprise: Lack of Parody Between G5 and P4
![5 College Football ESPN FPI Projections That Will Shock Every Fan 3 BYU Top 5 NFL Draft Prospects](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/dangelo-mandell-3-1024x704.jpg)
Everyone knows the gap between the Power Four conferences and the Group of Five Conferences is widening. With NIL, the transfer portal, and new media deals all significantly helping the P4 schools, the best G5 schools being promoted to the P4, and FCS schools taking their spots in the G5, the gap has never been wider.
And the rankings reflect that.
Only six of the top 70 are G5 teams, and Boise State is the highest-rated team, sitting at 48th. For a G5 team to move up significantly in the rankings, it will take some early nonconference upsets against P5 teams.
Personally, the almost clear line between the P4 and G5 rankings in the FPI tells me it may officially be time to split the two into separate leagues that play for different championships.
Surprise Team Likely to Miss a Bowl Game: Northwestern (5.5-6.5)
![5 College Football ESPN FPI Projections That Will Shock Every Fan 4 Northwestern, College Football FPI](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/USATSI_21818008_168400517_lowres-1-1024x665.jpg)
Northwestern was one of the surprise teams last year, going 8-4 during the regular season and beating Utah in a bowl game. However, that success doesn’t seem to follow them this season as ESPN FPI projects them going 5.5-6.5 overall, or a 49% chance of making a bowl game.
It is worth noting that Northwestern plays Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Washington this year, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable. Going from 8 wins to not being bowl-eligible under the second year of David Braun seems a bit odd, considering how much they overperformed last year.
Surprise Team Projected to Make a Bowl Game: Tulsa (6.2-5.8)
![5 College Football ESPN FPI Projections That Will Shock Every Fan 5 Oklahoma Sooners Danny Stutsman](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Danny-Stutsman.webp)
Tulsa went 4-8 last year, with four losses coming by more than 30 points. The Golden Hurricanes didn’t look very good on their way to a 2-6 AAC conference record. Their schedule does ease up this year, including getting to host Oklahoma State, but to have them projected to improve by more than two wins seems a bit much, especially considering they lost 17 players to the transfer portal,
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